Exit polls for the Delhi Assembly elections predict a significant shift in power, with the BJP projected to secure between 42-49 seats, potentially ending its 27-year wait for control. If the predictions hold, this would mark the conclusion of Arvind Kejriwal’s dominant winning streak in the capital. The final results will be announced on February 8.
Election analysts anticipate that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may secure only 20-28 seats, signaling a possible end to the party’s victorious run since 2013. A defeat for AAP could also raise concerns about the future of the political outfit, which emerged from the anti-corruption movement in 2011.
The 70-member Assembly requires a majority of 36 seats. In 2020, AAP secured a landslide victory with 62 seats and a 53.57% vote share, while the BJP won only eight seats with 38.51%. The Congress managed just 4.26%, and other parties polled 3.66%. In 2015, AAP had won 67 seats with 54.6% of the vote share.
Pollsters suggest that BJP gained an edge in this election through its promise of extensive welfare measures and a significant hike in income tax exemption from ₹7 lakh to ₹12 lakh, a move spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Exit polls presented mixed forecasts. People’s Pulse predicted a BJP sweep with 51-60 seats, while Matriz projected a tighter contest, estimating 35-40 seats for BJP and 32-37 for AAP. In contrast, Mind Brink’s survey suggested AAP might secure 44-49 seats, leaving BJP with 15-21 seats and Congress with just one.
AAP spokesperson Priyanka Kakkar dismissed the exit poll results, asserting that her party would win 58 seats while the BJP would secure around 12. She also accused the ruling administration of poll code violations and misuse of official bodies, including the Delhi Police and the Election Commission.
BJP candidate Ramesh Bidhuri, who contested against Chief Minister Atishi in Kalkaji, expressed confidence that his party would surpass the 50-seat mark once the final results were declared. “The BJP is set to comfortably form the government,” he stated.
The Congress appears unlikely to make a significant impact in the Delhi Assembly elections for the third consecutive time, with no exit poll predicting more than three seats for the party.
As exit poll results emerged, Delhi BJP President Virendra Sachdeva expressed confidence that the BJP would form the government. He also announced that, upon assuming office, the new administration would approve a ₹2,500 monthly payment to all women in its first Cabinet meeting.
“I thank Delhi voters for choosing a double-engine government in Delhi,” he stated.
Several exit polls projected a BJP victory. A survey by JVC estimated 39-45 seats for the BJP, with AAP expected to secure 22-31 seats and Congress receiving between 0-2 seats. Similarly, People’s Insights forecasted 40-44 seats for the BJP and 25-29 for AAP.
Chanakya Strategies’ exit poll suggested a range of 39-44 seats for the BJP, while AAP was predicted to win 25-28 seats. Congress was projected to get 2-3 seats.
P-Marq’s survey indicated a comfortable BJP majority, estimating 39-49 seats for the party, while AAP was expected to win between 21-31 seats.
Meanwhile, DV-Research predicted 36-44 seats for the BJP and 24-26 for AAP, with Congress failing to secure any seats.
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