A new survey by French polling agency Odoxa projects that 30-year-old far-right leader Jordan Bardella is currently the frontrunner for France’s 2027 presidential election. The president of the National Rally (RN) party—widely regarded as the political heir to Marine Le Pen—was found to outperform all potential opponents if the election were held today.
Conducted on November 19–20 among 1,000 respondents, the poll shows Bardella securing 35–36% of the vote in a first round, depending on the configuration of candidates. He is also projected to win every second-round matchup tested by Odoxa. The survey indicates a decisive 74% victory against far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon and a narrower 53% win over former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points.
However, Odoxa cautions that early frontrunner status does not guarantee an eventual win, noting historical patterns where Marine Le Pen and her father Jean-Marie Le Pen were defeated by broad political coalitions in past presidential runoffs.
Marine Le Pen, 57, is currently appealing a five-year ban from holding public office issued after a court ruling on misappropriation of funds. If upheld, Bardella—whose popularity now surpasses hers—stands as the party’s natural candidate for 2027.
The latest findings come amid declining public support for President Emmanuel Macron’s political successors following the mid-2024 snap election, which resulted in a hung parliament and stalled coalition-building efforts. Another poll earlier this month had shown Bardella narrowly losing to Édouard Philippe in a run-off, highlighting the volatility of the political landscape.
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