Navroop Singh, author of The Great Reset and co-author of The New Global Order, has downplayed the potential impact of the Trump administration’s decision to raise H-1B visa fees to $100,000 (₹88 lakh), with implementation set for September 21. Calling the move “more noise, no substance,” Singh argued that Indian IT firms are unlikely to see significant disruption.
In a detailed post on X (formerly Twitter), Singh noted that the policy does not affect existing employees or their visa renewals and will mostly influence how Indian IT companies recalibrate their global delivery models. “The new H-1B rules look disruptive at first glance, but for Indian IT companies, the impact is marginal,” he wrote.
Singh predicted a shift towards greater offshoring, outsourcing, and the expansion of Global Capability Centres (GCCs) in India. “By FY27, this evolution could actually prove value accretive. Combined with AI-driven productivity gains, the cost per employee will fall, cushioning margins for industry leaders like TCS and Infosys,” he said.
He also stressed that the policy is largely a political move aimed at energizing the MAGA base ahead of the 2026 mid-term elections. However, he noted that U.S. tech giants such as Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google are unlikely to face major disruption due to their heavy reliance on India’s talent pool and cost arbitrage. Singh pointed out that the WTO’s GATS framework exempts services from tariffs, further reducing the potential economic shock.
“This is a ‘least disruptive strike’ on Indian IT — loud enough to create headlines, but not strong enough to break the ecosystem,” Singh observed. He added that the U.S. may be using such moves to pressure India for trade concessions in agriculture and dairy.
According to Singh, the long-term outcome could favor India: “Big Tech has already locked in billions through GCCs and outsourcing contracts. Their symbiotic relationship with Indian talent is too deep to unwind. For Indian IT, the so-called crackdown may, ironically, prove to be a competitive advantage.”
As of June 30, FY2025 H-1B data from USCIS shows Amazon leading approvals with 10,044 visas, followed by TCS (5,505), Microsoft (5,189), Meta (5,123), Apple (4,202), and Google (4,181). Infosys (2,004), LTIMindtree (1,807), and HCL America (1,728) also feature among the top 20. Over 70% of all H-1B visas are issued to Indian tech professionals, underlining the sector’s continued strategic importance to the U.S. tech ecosystem.
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