A new report has highlighted a concerning trend in global education, suggesting that a student’s country of origin is increasingly influencing their chances of studying in the United States. The study, titled “Beyond the Interview: A Decade of Student Visa Denials and What Comes Next,” was conducted by Shorelight in collaboration with the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, using data obtained from the US Department of State. Its findings reveal that student visa refusals are rising steadily and are increasingly concentrated in regions across the Global South.
Over the past decade, F-1 visa rejection rates have grown from around 23% in 2015 to nearly 35% in 2025, reflecting a sharp and consistent increase. However, this rise is not evenly distributed. Applicants from Asia face refusal rates of about 41%, significantly higher than those from regions like Europe, where rejection rates remain as low as 9%. African countries have seen an even steeper increase, with refusal rates climbing from 43% in 2015 to nearly 64% in recent years, pointing to a pattern that appears structural rather than incidental.
For India, the situation is particularly severe. Visa rejection rates for Indian students surged from 53% to 61% within a year, placing them among the most affected globally. The trend extends across South Asia, with Nepal witnessing a rise from 59% to 81%, while Bangladesh and Pakistan report refusal rates of 73% and 71% respectively. These figures indicate a broader regional challenge rather than isolated cases.
Indian students, who form nearly 30% of the international student population in the US, play a crucial role in its academic and research ecosystem, especially in STEM fields. They also represent a large share of participants in work pathways such as H-1B visas and STEM-OPT programmes. However, the tightening visa environment is already having visible consequences. Indian student enrolment in US graduate programmes declined by 9.5% in 2024–25, while the total number of Indian students dropped from 378,787 in February 2025 to 352,644 in February 2026. Overall, the number of Indian students heading to the US has fallen by nearly 28% in the past year.
This shrinking pipeline is not without impact on the US itself. Universities could face revenue losses estimated between $3 billion and $8.6 billion, along with reduced research output and diminished academic capacity. The report ultimately raises important questions about fairness and access, suggesting that geography may be playing an increasingly decisive role in shaping opportunities for international education, potentially outweighing merit in the process.
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