Canada is witnessing a notable surge in immigration refusal rates across both permanent and temporary resident categories, according to federal data reported by The Toronto Star. The upward trend, visible since 2023, is particularly pronounced in temporary resident programs, where stricter eligibility criteria, evolving policy priorities, and mounting pressure on officers to process files quickly are driving higher rejection levels. Critics caution that Ottawa’s efforts to reduce backlogs may lead to hasty decision-making.

Policy Shifts Behind the Increase

The federal government has introduced wide-ranging reforms to better align immigration intake with economic priorities and reduce the overall number of temporary residents. Key measures include:

Study permit cap: In September 2024, approvals for 2025 were cut by 10%, from 485,000 to 437,000.

New PGWP language requirements: As of 1 November 2024, applicants must meet Canadian Language Benchmark (CLB) Level 7 (university graduates) or CLB Level 5 (college graduates).

Family open work permit restrictions: Effective 21 January 2025, eligibility narrowed to spouses of master’s (16+ months), doctoral, or designated professional program students, and spouses of foreign workers meeting occupational and duration criteria. Dependent children of foreign workers are no longer eligible.

Refusal Rates Climb Across Categories

Immigration.ca data for the first five months of 2025 shows rejection rates rising in permanent resident streams:

Economic class: 6.7% (up from 5% in 2023)

Family class: 12.6% (up from 7.2% in 2023)

Humanitarian and compassionate: 40.4% (up from 29.5% in 2023)

Refugees with protected status: 16.5% (up from 12.9% in 2023)

Temporary programs have seen even steeper increases:

Study permits: 65.4% (from 40.5%)

Visitor visas: 50% (from 39%)

Post-graduation work permits: 24.6% (from 12.8%)

Work permits for spouses: 52.3% (from 25.2%)

Work permit extensions: 10.8% (from 6.5%)

Backlogs Persist Despite Intake Cuts

Even as Ottawa reduces immigration targets for 2025–2027 and trims staff by 3,300 positions, the application pipeline continues to grow. As of 30 June 2025, 2.19 million files were in the system—up from 1.98 million in March—with 842,800 exceeding service standards.

Experts note that economic class programs maintain relatively low refusal rates due to structured scoring systems like Express Entry. By contrast, higher family-class refusals may signal an uptick in status-seeking marriages where other pathways have narrowed.

Canada Still a Top Draw for Students

Despite more restrictive rules and higher rejections, international students remain eager to study in Canada. According to ApplyBoard’s Spring 2025 Student Pulse Survey, 94% of nearly 850 respondents expressed continued interest, citing Canada’s high-quality education, cultural diversity, and favourable post-graduation opportunities. However, affordability remains a major concern, with 77% citing tuition costs as a key factor influencing their choice of shorter or less expensive programs.