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James Cameron’s ambitious tentpole franchise Avatar has returned to theatres with its third installment, Avatar: Fire and Ash, which released worldwide this Friday. While the first two films emerged as historic box office juggernauts, the latest chapter has opened to mixed reactions from audiences and critics, with its final box office fate expected to become clearer in the coming days.

In Fire and Ash, Cameron expands the world of Pandora further by introducing the Mangkwan, a brutal and aggressive clan that inhabits the volcanic regions of the planet. The new faction adds a darker and more violent layer to the narrative, moving away from the aquatic setting explored in Avatar: The Way of Water.

James Cameron has long maintained that the Avatar saga is designed as a five-film series. The fourth installment is already partially filmed, and production is expected to resume now that the third film has reached theatres—three years after the release of the second part.

However, Cameron himself appears unsure about when Avatar 4 will be ready for release. When asked about its timeline in a recent interview with a leading Hollywood publication, the filmmaker responded with a sarcastic metaphor:

“I’m gonna pose a metaphor to you: when a woman is in labour, she’s just crowning, would you ask her about her next child? Okay, I just delivered this thing.”

The comment has since gone viral on social media, reflecting both the massive anticipation surrounding the franchise and the pressure Cameron faces to sustain momentum. Despite the mixed word-of-mouth for Fire and Ash, industry observers believe that strong worldwide collections are still possible, driven by audiences who continue to admire the franchise’s visual spectacle and technical innovation.

That said, planning a five-film saga remains a significant creative and commercial risk, even for a filmmaker of Cameron’s stature. Concerns are growing among sections of the audience about franchise fatigue, with repeated themes, settings, and narrative structures potentially reducing excitement rather than building it. The fact that major portions of future sequels have already been filmed has only intensified these debates.

Looking ahead, Cameron faces two major choices: reinvent the franchise by exploring an entirely new world or narrative direction, or potentially conclude the saga earlier than planned and move on to other projects. While it is too early to judge the long-term future of Avatar, the reception to Fire and Ash may prove crucial in determining the path forward for one of cinema’s most ambitious franchises.