South Indian politics is set for an important development on May 4, when the results of the Tamil Nadu and Kerala Assembly elections will be declared.
Meanwhile, YSR Congress (YCP) social media groups have intensified their criticism of Pawan Kalyan, drawing comparisons using exit poll trends from the Tamil Nadu elections.
These groups are highlighting reports suggesting that Thalapathy Vijay’s TVK party may secure a respectable number of seats. Some projections even speculate double-digit wins, while a few overly optimistic estimates suggest figures as high as 100–120 seats, though such numbers remain highly speculative.
Based on these projections, YCP supporters are arguing that Vijay, despite being a newcomer to politics, appears to be performing better than Pawan Kalyan in terms of electoral impact. They point out that Pawan Kalyan, despite his popularity and massive public gatherings during the 2019 elections, failed to translate that support into seats, losing in both constituencies he contested.
However, this comparison overlooks several key political differences. In 2019, Andhra Pradesh witnessed strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the then ruling party, which significantly influenced the outcome. The YSRCP wave under Jagan Mohan Reddy played a major role in the electoral sweep, making the overall environment very different from Tamil Nadu’s current political landscape.
Unlike Andhra Pradesh at that time, Tamil Nadu’s political field is more open, with a different voter base and competitive dynamics. Therefore, directly comparing Vijay’s early political performance with Pawan Kalyan’s earlier experience is not entirely accurate or fair.
Interestingly, if Vijay does manage to secure even 15–20 seats in his debut election, it would itself be a notable achievement. Ironically, such a result could also weaken the narrative being pushed by YCP social media groups, especially considering their own dramatic fall from 151 seats to just 11 in a recent election.
It is also important to remember that exit polls are only predictions, not final outcomes. History has shown that they can often deviate significantly from actual results. Therefore, drawing conclusions or building narratives based solely on these early projections is premature.
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