A new study conducted by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences projects a significant acceleration in warming across the Tibetan Plateau over the next decade. The findings, published in Science Bulletin, emphasize that between 2025 and 2032, the region’s annual mean temperature is expected to increase by approximately 0.98°C relative to the 1991–2020 average—a rate 1.75 times faster than the warming observed from 2016 to 2023.
Traditionally, long-term climate projections have struggled to provide reliable decadal-scale forecasts due to substantial internal climate variability. However, this latest research employs decadal climate prediction, an emerging approach that integrates both the current state of the climate system and external forcings, offering enhanced regional forecast accuracy.
The IAP researchers analyzed advanced international decadal prediction systems to evaluate the predictability of temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau. Their analysis highlights that internal climate variability, particularly phenomena such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), plays a critical role in influencing decadal temperature patterns, alongside greenhouse gas emissions and other external factors.
Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), the team also assessed the implications of this accelerated warming on regional glaciers. Simulations indicate a projected reduction in glacier volume by approximately 1.4%, exacerbating melt rates and posing a severe threat to water security for hundreds of millions of people across Asia. The resulting glacial loss could also destabilize the ecological equilibrium of the region and contribute to broader climatic impacts at a global scale.
This study underscores the urgent need for enhanced climate monitoring and adaptive strategies to mitigate the cascading effects of climate change in one of the world’s most ecologically and hydrologically critical regions.
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